Всемирная психиатрия. №1 2019

Оценка риска развития птср у выживших после недавней травмы: результаты Международного консорциума по прогнозированию ПТСР (ICPP)

Arieh Y. Shalev1, Martin Gevonden2, Andrew Ratanatharathorn3, Eugene Laska1, Willem F. van der Mei1, Wei Qi1, Sarah Lowe4, Betty S. Lai5, Richard A. Bryant6, Douglas Delahanty7, Yutaka J. Matsuoka8, Miranda Olff9, Ulrich Schnyder10, Soraya Seedat11,Terri A. deRoon-Cassini12, Ronald C. Kessler13, Karestan C. Koenen14; International Consortium to Predict PTSD*

1Department of Psychiatry, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Nether- lands; 3Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA; 4Department of Psychology, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ, USA; 5Department of Counseling, Developmental and Educational Psychology, Lynch School of Education, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; 6School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 7Department of Psychological Sciences, Kent State University, Kent, OH, USA; 8Division of Health Care Research, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center Japan,Tokyo, Japan; 9Department of Psychiatry, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group, Diemen,The Netherlands; 10University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; 11Department of Psychiatry, Stellenbosch University, Parow, Cape Town, South Africa; 12Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA; 13Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; 14Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA * Члены Международного консорциума по прогнозированию ПТСР перечислены в приложении

Стр. 77-87

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Опубликовано: 22 января 2019

Аннотация / Abstract

Перевод: Шуненков Д.А. (Иваново) Редактура: к.м.н. Потанин С.С. (Москва) Своевременное определение риска посттравматического стрессового расстройства (ПТСР) является необходимым условием для эффективной медицинской помощи и профилактики. Мы представляем инструмент оценки риска, позволяющий рассчитать индивидуальную вероятность развития ПТСР на основе ранних предикторов. Члены Международного консорциума по прогнозированию ПТСР (ICPP) поделились индивидуальными данными участников из десяти лонгитюдных исследований гражданских пострадавших от травм, обратившихся в центры неотложной помощи в шести странах. Участники, удовлетворяющие критериям включения (N=2473), прошли первоначальную клиническую оценку в течение 60 дней после травмы и по крайней мере одну оценку при последующем наблюдении 4-15 месяцев спустя. Выраженность симптомов ПТСР и диагностический статус каждый раз оценивались по клинической шкале ПТСР для DSM-IV (CAPS). Данные об образовании участников, наличии предшествующей травмы в течение жизни, семейном положении и социально-экономическом статусе, полученные из различных исследований, были оценены и гармонизированы. Основной конечной точкой исследования была вероятность последующего развития ПТСР с учетом ранних предикторов. Распространенность ПТСР при последующем наблюдении составила 11,8% (9,2% для мужчин и 16,4% для женщин). Логистическая модель, основанная на выраженности ранних симптомов ПТСР (начальный общий балл CAPS) в качестве предиктора, дала возможность весьма точной оценки развития ПТСР при последующем наблюдении (прогнозируемые пр. наблюдаемых вероятностей: r=0,976). Добавление женского пола респондентов, более низкого уровня образования и воздействия предшествующей межличностной травмы к модели привело к более высоким оценкам вероятности ПТСР с аналогичной точностью модели (прогнозируемые пр. наблюдаемых вероятностей: r=0,941). Настоящая модель может быть скорректирована с учетом других травматических обстоятельств и факторов риска, ...

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Оценка риска развития птср у выживших после недавней травмы: результаты Международного консорциума по прогнозированию ПТСР (ICPP)

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ИЗДАНИЯ-ПАРТНЕРЫ

Оценка риска развития птср у выживших после недавней травмы: результаты Международного консорциума по прогнозированию ПТСР (ICPP)

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